Job Market Outlook (Projected Growth)
BLS projections for how fast employment in an occupation will grow or shrink over the next decade, measured as a percentage change in total jobs.
Job Market Outlook (Projected Growth) is a term from U.S. wage and occupational data — typically a concept from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey, the DOL prevailing-wage system, or related employment statistics. The definition here is the practical worker-facing meaning. Understanding Job Market Outlook (Projected Growth) is part of reading wage data defensibly. BLS and DOL conventions can be subtle — survey methodology, reporting thresholds, geographic definitions, and percentile calculations all shape what the headline numbers actually mean.
Each role-and-city page on SalaryTruth surfaces the Job Market Outlook (Projected Growth)-relevant values for that specific combination, so the general definition here translates into concrete numbers on the per-role-and-city pages.
How It Works
The BLS Employment Projections program forecasts job growth for every occupation over a 10-year period. Growth is categorized as: "much faster than average" (8%+ growth), "faster than average" (5-8%), "as fast as average" (2-5%), "slower than average" (0-2%), and "decline" (negative growth). For the 2022-2032 projection period, the fastest-growing occupations include nurse practitioners (+45%), data scientists (+35%), information security analysts (+32%), and software developers (+25%). Declining occupations include data entry keyers (-30%), word processors (-33%), and watch repairers (-18%). Growth projections affect career planning because they indicate future demand for your skills. High-growth occupations tend to have upward wage pressure (employers compete for scarce talent), while declining occupations face downward pressure. However, even "declining" occupations may offer good careers if the total workforce is large, a -10% decline in a 500,000-person occupation still leaves 450,000 jobs. BLS projections are based on economic modeling and have historically been reasonably accurate at the macro level, though individual occupation forecasts can miss due to unexpected technological or policy shifts.
Related Terms
- Career Growth (Salary Trajectory), The pattern of earnings increases over a career, typically steepest in the first 10 years, plateauing in the mid-40s for most occupations, with significant variation by industry and role.
- Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Code, A federal system that categorizes every U.S. job into one of 867 detailed occupations, used by BLS, DOL, and Census Bureau to track wages, employment, and labor market trends.
- BLS OEWS (Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics), The Bureau of Labor Statistics survey that produces the salary data used by SalaryTruth, covering 800+ occupations across all U.S. metro areas, with data from 1.1 million business establishments.
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About This Definition
This definition is part of the SalaryTruth Salary & Career Glossary, 25 terms explaining compensation, salary data, and career development. All salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics OEWS survey.